AGENDA
(Singapore local time)
DAY 1 – 28 JULY 2026, TUESDAY
8:00 am – 8:30 am
Registration and coffee
8:30 am – 8:35 am
Welcome Remarks
Abdurohman, Deputy Director, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO)
8:35 am – 9:05 am
Keynote Speech: When is Currency Volatility Excessive? The Practice of the Integrated Policy Framework
Dong He, Chief Economist, AMRO
9:05 am – 9:25 am
Open Discussion
9:25 am – 9:30 am
Group photo
9:30 am – 9:40 am
Coffee break
Session 1
Chair: John Beirne, Principal Economist, Asian Development Bank (ADB)
9:40 am – 10:05 am
Paper 1: Divide and Indebt – How Geoeconomic Fragmentation Affects Macro-Fiscal Stability
Ervin Prifti, Economist, International Monetary Fund
10:05 am – 10:15 am
Discussant: Hwee Kwan Chow, Professor, Singapore Management University
10:15 am – 10:30 am
Open Discussion
10:30 am – 10:55 am
Paper 2: Macroeconomic Outcomes Under Alternative Fiscal and Monetary Policy Stances: Evidence from the NEXUS Model
Aruhan Rui Shi, Associate Economist, AMRO
10:55 am – 11:05 am
Discussant: Yang Jiao, Assistant Professor, Singapore Management University
11:05 am – 11:20 am
Open Discussion
11:20 am – 11:45 am
Paper 3: EME policy responses to U.S. monetary policy surprises: the role of financial channels of the exchange rate
Mikael Juselius, Senior Economist, Bank for International Settlements
11:45 am – 11:55 am
Virtual Discussant: Anella Munro, Visiting Professor of Economics, Asia School of Business
11:55 am – 12:10 pm
Open Discussion
12:10 pm – 1:30 pm
Lunch break
Session 2
Chair: Donghyun Park, Director, The SEACEN Centre
1:40 pm – 2:05 pm
Paper 4: Inflation Dynamics under Global Supply Chain Disruptions in a Small Open Economy: The Role of Trade Vulnerability, Shock Volatility, and Monetary Policy Stance
Sekar Utami Setiastuti, Economist, AMRO
2:05 pm – 2:15 pm
Discussant: Wai Mun Chia, Associate Professor, Nanyang Technological University
2:15 pm – 2:30 pm
Open Discussion
2:30 pm – 2:55 pm
Paper 5: Global fragmentation, fiscal policy, and economic growth: a cross-country analysis
Gazi Salah Uddin, Full Professor, Linköping University, Sweden
2:55 pm – 3:05 pm
Discussant: Takeki Sunakawa, Professor, Graduate School of Economics Hitotsubashi University
3:05 pm – 3:20 pm
Open Discussion
3:20 pm – 3:40 pm
Coffee break
Session 3
Chair: Jerry Huang, Deputy Group Head and Senior Economist, AMRO
3:40 pm – 4:05 pm
Paper 6: The Fiscal Effectiveness Corridor: Geopolitical Risk Thresholds, State-Dependent Multipliers, and Policy Trade-offs in Emerging Asian Economies
Avik Ghosh, Assistant General Manager, Reserve Bank of India
4:05 pm – 4:15 pm
Discussant: Ozer Karagedikli, Professor, Asia School of Business
4:15 pm – 4:30 pm
Open Discussion
4:30 pm – 4:55 pm
Paper 7: Monetary Policy Effectiveness in a Fragmented World: The Role of Institutions, Fiscal Vulnerabilities, and Exchange Rate Regimes
Joao Jalles, Professor, University of Lisbon
4:55 pm – 5:05 pm
Discussant: Nur Ain Shahrier, Senior Economist, The SEACEN Centre
5:05 pm – 5:20 pm
Open Discussion
5:20 pm – 5:25 pm
Announcements
6:00 pm
Welcome Dinner
DAY 2 – 29 JULY 2026, WEDNESDAY
8:40 am – 9:25 am
Registration
9:25 am – 9:30 am
Welcome Remarks
John Beirne, Principal Economist, ADB
9:30 am – 10:00 am
Keynote Speech: Comparative Advantage and Openness under Global Fragmentation: Lessons from the Past 65 Years
Joshua Aizenman, Dockson Chair in Economics and International Relations, University of Southern California and Jamel Saadaoui (virtual), Full Professor, Paris 8 University
10:00 am – 10:20 am
Open Discussion
Session 4
Chair: Allen Ng, Group Head and Lead Economist, AMRO
10:25 am – 10:50 am
Paper 8: Tariff News Shock and Dollar Safety
Huanhuan Zheng, Associate Professor, City University of Hong Kong
10:50 am – 11:00 am
Discussant: Dora Xia, Principal Economist, Bank for International Settlements
11:00 am – 11:15 am
Open Discussion
11:15 am – 11:30 am
Coffee Break
11:35 am – 12:00 pm
Paper 9: Economic Uncertainty and Extreme Capital Flow Movement
Yang Zhou, Lecturer, Nagoya City University
12:00 pm – 12:10 pm
Discussant: Jongrim Ha, Senior Economist, AMRO
12:10 pm – 12:25 pm
Open Discussion
12:25 pm – 2:00 pm
Lunch Break
Session 5
Chair: Pilipinas Quising, Principal Economics Officer, ADB
2:00 pm – 2:25 pm
Paper 10: International Transmission of Global Confidence Shocks
Inhwan So, Assistant Professor, Hongik University
2:25 pm – 2:35 pm
Discussant: Donghai Zhang, Assistant Professor, National University of Singapore
2:35 pm – 2:50 pm
Open Discussion
2:50 pm – 3:15 pm
Paper 11: Monetary Policy and Banking Crises: The Role of Geopolitical Risk and Financial Vulnerabilities
Bilge Karataş, Assistant Professor, Utrecht University
3:15 pm – 3:25 pm
Discussant: Ivan Lim, Economist, AMRO
3:25 pm – 3:40 pm
Open Discussion
3:40 pm – 3:55 pm
Coffee Break
4:00 pm – 4:25 pm
Paper 12: Primary Balance, Debt Composition, and Sovereign Yields in Emerging Economies
Abhishek Kumar, Assistant Professor, University of Southampton
4:25 pm – 4:35 pm
Virtual Discussant: Kasun Pathirage, Deputy Director, Central Bank of Sri Lanka
4:35 pm – 4:50 pm
Open Discussion
4:50 pm – 5:00 pm
Closing Remarks
Allen Ng, AMRO; John Beirne, ADB; Donghyun Park, The SEACEN Centre